A survey of okayish ASI futures

At this point, RSI loops and continual learning appear overwhelmingly likely to begin in the near future. Whatever the limit of the LLM paradigm plus whatever new, superior paradigms a maximally intelligent LLM can develop, we are on track to do so in the next few years. There remain substantial obstacles to wild superintelligence, but AI is already superhuman in a number of real-world-relevant, dangerous categories. Most speculation about the trajectory we're on now focuses on timelines where w...