AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

Published on July 8, 2026 2:33 PM GMTThis post is a synthesis of 11 Metaculus analyses run between Oct 2024 and May 2026, seeking to summarize everything we know about AI forecasting and how to do it well. Conclusions from other papers, blogs, and benchmarks are also discussed in order to give a comprehensive overview of the field. Top takeawaysPros still beat bots in comparisons to date: Metaculus has compared bots and Pros (top forecasters on Metaculus) on a shared set of forward-looking quest...