AI Omens: 2+ Years Later

In September 2022, I wrote a post describing a set of “omens” that, if observed, would indicate faster-than-expected AI progress. I framed many of these in the context of 0-5 years, but obviously AI moves too fast to wait until 2027 to review these. Consider this post an arbitrarily timed intermediate check in triggered by my sense that many of my omens had come to pass. The rest of this post assumes you’ve skimmed the omens post, so if you haven’t already, I recommend doing that now.