AIRO: Automated forecasts of catastrophic risks

The Forecasting Research Institute (along with coauthors Jason Abaluck and Eva Vivalt) are launching Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO): an ensemble of frontier LLMs reguarly forecasting the probability of catastrophic risk events. AIRO dashboardLaunch white paper—Forecasts about the likelihood of catastrophic risks from AI vary wildly. Forecasts from frontier AI models could be an important input into this debate. The best models now approach superforecaster levels of accuracy, and models are rap...