Calibrating alignment evals

Currently, alignment evaluation works by constructing a situation, observing the model's behavior and scoring it. We put a lot of thought into designing these benchmarks, and tuning them for our requirement. We are now much better at probing models for dangerous behavior than we were two years ago. But when a safety benchmark returns a pass rate of 97%, can we answer questions of how often it would fail under slightly different conditions or what the smallest misalignment it can detect? I have i...