Can the U.S. and China Deny AI?

Summary: Right now, we have no idea how practical it is for countries to sabotage each others’ AI projects. This makes it hard to forecast what countries are going to do once the reality of superintelligence sets in: among other things, it’s unclear what military options middle powers have to slow the U.S. and China down, whether blockading Taiwan is a death blow to U.S. AI or a setback, and whether it’s realistic to expect AI deterrence to last for decades like MAD.To help get better intuitions...