Does disaster frequency follow power laws? It's complicated

Published on May 26, 2026 2:08 PM GMTDisclaimer: This is a huge topic, and I’m barely scratching the surface here. I’m not an expert on these subjects, and am mostly trying to summarise the work of experts in an accessible way. All writing is my own. Introduction:One of my chief complaints about the field of existential risk prevention is that it often relies on estimates that are not well-grounded in empirical evidence. But I want to be clear that some empirical data on threats to humanity does...