Donation Timing Under Uncertainty About AI Timelines

Published on May 11, 2026 6:42 PM GMTCross-posted from my website. A few years back, I got a big pile of money from working at a tech startup. I put a lot of that money into a donor-advised fund. Since now I make hardly any money, that DAF might represent the majority of my lifetime donations. How much of my DAF should I donate per year? In particular, how much should I donate in light of short AI timelines? I created a simple model to answer this question. The basic concept: After the singulari...