Estimating GPT-6 Astra’s no-CoT Time Horizon

TL;DR: We run astra on the task-suite from Think Fast. GPT-6 Astra is close to saturation on our suite, meaning that giving a confident estimate of time horizons (TH) is more challenging.Our rough estimate is that Astra’s 50% TH is in [8mins, 1 hour] and probably around 15-40 mins. This is inline with UKAISI’s estimate of 30 minutes measured only on math. Using data from 2019 to April 2026, in Think Fast our median prediction was that no-CoT THs could exceed 7 minutes by 2028. We estimated 30min...