Examining AI Swarm Efficiency with the AI Futures Model

I've been playing around with the AI Futures Model (which informed AI 2027 and AI 2040) in order to better understand how AI swarms will reshape AI progress.In particular, I've been interested in how parallel agent efficiency might increase capabilities and shorten timelines, and to be very particular, I've been interested in the parameter λ. To quote Toby Ord in Swarm Scaling:λ is a parameter measuring how parallelisable the task is. They call it the ‘stepping on toes’ parameter.[1] If λ = 1, y...