FutureEval Spring Results: Pros Beat Bots, but the Gap is Nearly Gone

Main TakeawaysTop Findings:Pro forecasters beat bots but without significance: Our team of 10 Metaculus Pro Forecasters outperformed the top-10 bot team by an average of 1.25 head-to-head points per question. But this edge is small relative to the question-to-question variation and not statistically significant (one-sided p = 0.247), so this sample doesn't give us enough evidence to confirm Pros were genuinely ahead this season.The bot team improved notably in the last year: The bot team’s head-...