Guesstimate For Prediction Market Returns

I made a Guesstimate model for the expected growth rate of a real-money prediction market bet.Inputs:Cost of $1 share (cents)Annualized holding reward (%)Win probability (%)Days to resolutionOutputs:Annualized expected returns (%)This lets you compare the expected growth rate of participating in the market with the opportunity cost of locking up that capital through market resolution. Note that you can put in ranges using the syntax "90 to 95" (no = sign), which may be useful in the win probabil...