Held-out Monitors Sometimes Degrade, Even When Not Trained Against

Thanks to Dennis Akar, Rauno Arike, Shubhorup Biswas, Claude Fable, Max Heitmann, Vladimir Ivanov, and Jordan Taylor (alphabetical order) for helpful comments on this draft and on the research so far. Thanks to Rohan Subramani and Rhys Ward for high-level comments and discussion. Based on project proposals from Max Heitmann, Jordan Taylor, and Joshua Clymer. This work was done while at Aether Research.Code available here, metrics & run info available here.TL;DR: Held-out evals / monitors / probe...