High Impact Complex System Models Have Come of Age

Published on September 4, 2026 1:56 PM GMTMotivationCalculating the probability that an event causing extreme suffering occurs is, by itself, not a particularly high-impact thing to do. Using this probability alone to inform policy decisions that could potentially result in a reduction of this suffering is better. However, better still than considering risk size and the probability of occurrence alone is a prediction capable of producing a robust policy. The purpose of this article is both to ex...