How do we make uncertainty usable?
Most AI researchers put at least 5% on advanced AI causing human extinction or extreme disempowerment. The most cited scientists of all time are Yoshua Bengio and Geoffrey Hinton and they both put extinction at 10% or more. There is a distinct lack of global response to this kind of message from relevant scientists.One reason people purport to not be impressed by these chances of extinction is that they are subjective probabilities, not verified frequencies or arising from a more formal process....
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