How much slower does takeoff go with 10× less compute?

About 6x slower in the median case, with an 80% CI of 3.5x to 8x. SetupDefine the "R&D compute" (in, say, H100-equivalents) of an AGI company at a given time to be the total compute in use across the following categories:Compute used to run experiments, which are used to search for software improvements,Compute used to run automated researcher agents,Compute used in final training runs for frontier models.With mjx-math { display: inline-block; text-align: left; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; fo...