I would only bet at 30% on meeting grabby aliens

The grabby aliens argumentAccording to standard models of cosmology, there will be habitable planets in our universe for a very long time, and some of these planets will be much longer-lived than our Earth. If we expect the emergence of intelligent life to require multiple unlikely hard steps to accidentally happen in a row (as is a common model, usually assuming between 3 and 10 hard steps), then it should be very surprising that we find ourselves on a relatively short-lived planet early in the...