If This Were a Test, How Much Would It Cost?

TL;DRA capable, strategic, misaligned AI doesn't need to figure out whether it's in a test or in real deployment. It just needs to ask: "If this were a test, how much would it have cost to create?" If the answer is "more than what the evaluator is able or willing to spend," then the AI can be confident it's in the real world — and act accordingly. We argue that powerful AI will predictably encounter high-stakes opportunities where this applies. Pre-deployment testing, by itself, cannot close thi...