Metaculus forecast giving of only $25.7B over 4 years from the IPO windfall

Published on September 30, 2026 6:58 PM GMTOur forecasts currently show over $100B total pledged.But, as our forecasters have noted, this likely won’t translate into immediate actual money in the bank. They expect only about $25.7B total will actually land in charities within 4 years of shareholders being able to sell after the lockup period ends.Projected figures for windfall are high but vary widely. Nan Ransohoff says people can expect $37B or more per year from this “third wave” of American ...