Modelling variation in the METR Uplift Study

Disclaimer: Not associated with METR.SummaryI reanalysed the METR uplift study under a meta-analytic model to estimate the range of plausible effects that we may see in repeated trials. If the average population effect varied as much as medical and economic Randomized Control Trials (RCTs), we would see a 95% credible interval of results from -55% to +193% even without study-specific effects. The mean population effect was between 10-20% with heavy tails. The probability of a slowdown is between...