Open and closed models are on different exponentials

The largest debate that’ll define the future balance of power between the open and closed AI model ecosystems is primarily economic — it’s if users of AI will continue to pay dramatically more, i.e. large margins, for the top closed models. Early 2026 is a seminal time for the AI industry, as the coding agents1 have shown the first area where a huge AI market will continue to pay a substantial premium for better intelligence. The other side of this dichotomy is the inevitable decay of API busine...