P(Anyone Builds It & Everyone Dies) = 0.62?

·LessWrong··

TL;DR: ArgMap is a tool I created to make arguments explorable and computable, with every step directly linkable. Its first map is of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: I mapped the logical structure of the book's argument with LLM help. LLM readers derive confidence numbers from the authors' words through a rubric that was fixed in advance. The computation tests how well the authors' stated confidence fits their argument as I mapped it, rather than reflecting my personal view of the book. Out ...

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