Reevaluating AI-2027: timelines, takeoff, alignment and China

AI-2027-TLDRThe AI-2027 scenario relies on exponential growth of compute available to leading labs, on superexponential progress in time horizons until the Superhuman Coder is developed and on skyrocketing research taste in post-SC AIs. During the intelligence explosion, alignment suffers: Agent-2 was believed to be mostly aligned, Agent-3 was supposed to optimize for reward or for apparent success, Agent-4 would develop higher-level goals, decide to align Agent-5 to itself, be barely caught sab...