AI Forecasting: Two Years In

Two years ago, I commissioned forecasts for state-of-the-art performance on several popular ML benchmarks. Forecasters were asked to predict state-of-the-art performance on June 30th of 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. While there were four benchmarks total, the two most notable were MATH (a dataset of free-response math contest problems) and MMLU (a dataset of multiple-choice exams from the high school to post-graduate level). One year ago, I evaluated the first set of forecasts. Forecasters did poo...