Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)

What are we scaling?I’m confused why some people have short timelines and at the same time are bullish on the current scale up of reinforcement learning atop LLMs. If we’re actually close to a human-like learner, this whole approach of training on verifiable outcomes is doomed.Currently the labs are trying to bake in a bunch of skills into these models through “mid-training” - there’s an entire supply chain of companies building RL environments which teach the model how to navigate a web browser...