Scoring my 2021 Predictions

·Stephen Malina··

At the beginning of last year, I made predictions for the year. Now it’s time to score them (before I make my 2022 predictions). Data & code # Here is a spreadsheet containing my scored predictions. If you want to see my full analysis, you can look at my Jupyter notebook which contains Brier score calculations plus plotting. High level analysis # The key metrics I looked at were my overall and by category Brier scores plus calibration. My overall Brier score was .18. (1) (1)As a refresher, the B...

Read full article →

Related Articles

Does Employment Slow Cognitive Decline? Evidence from Labor Market Shocks
littlexsparkee · Hacker News · 4d ago
Underwater robot tracks sperm whale conversations in real time
thedebuglife · Hacker News · 5d ago
Linking spatial biology and clinical histology via Haiku
Yan Cui, Jacob S. Leiby, Wenhui Lei, Dokyoon Kim, Yanxiang Deng, Aaron T. Mayer, Zhenqin Wu, Alexandro E. Trevino, Zhi Huang · ArXiv cs.LG · 3d ago
CGM-JEPA: Learning Consistent Continuous Glucose Monitor Representations via Predictive Self-Supervised Pretraining
Hada Melino Muhammad, Zechen Li, Flora Salim, Ahmed A. Metwally · ArXiv cs.LG · 3d ago
CellxPert: Inference-Time MCMC Steering of a Multi-Omics Single-Cell Foundation Model for In-Silico Perturbation
Andac Demir, Erik W. Anderson, Jeremy L. Jenkins, Srayanta Mukherjee · ArXiv q-bio · 3d ago