Scoring my 2021 Predictions

At the beginning of last year, I made predictions for the year. Now it’s time to score them (before I make my 2022 predictions). Data & code # Here is a spreadsheet containing my scored predictions. If you want to see my full analysis, you can look at my Jupyter notebook which contains Brier score calculations plus plotting. High level analysis # The key metrics I looked at were my overall and by category Brier scores plus calibration. My overall Brier score was .18. (1) (1)As a refresher, the B...