The sloppy research fuelling fears of superhuman AI

Published on October 5, 2026 7:51 PM GMTIf there is one piece of evidence used to support fears of superhuman AI, it’s this graph:The graph is supposed to show exponential improvement in large language models (LLMs) on a variety of tasks, especially software engineering. The graph compares two things: 1) how long it takes humans to do certain tasks and 2) how long it takes LLMs to do those same tasks when they succeed at least 50% of the time.A reasonable question to ask is: how do the people wh...