What can you do with barely any data?

(Epistemic Status: Exploring a cool technique I came across. Usefulness is debatable, but plausibly decent if you need something you can do in your head. Some of the math is intentionally handwavey, but I think the basic points are robust.)A little while ago, I was reading How to Measure Anything by Douglas Hubbard. For the most part, I found that the book, though interesting, mainly covered ideas and concepts I already knew, such as ‘value of information’, A/B testing, linear regression, and Ba...