Why I expect AI replication incidents by 2027

Epistemic status: thinking out loud.I think a major incident of autonomous AI replication in the wild before the end of 2027 is reasonably likely. In this post, I explain the reasons why I think so.1. The capability is moving to cheaper hardwareThe capability density of open models doubles about every 3.3 months[1], so the same performance fits into half the parameters within that time. Epoch AI finds that a single consumer GPU runs open models that match the frontier of 6-12 months earlier[2]. ...