World-modeling the US vs. Anthropic Standoff on Claude Fable

[Edit, June 20, 2026: Revised forecast from median re-launch July 12 to July 7, based on Trump's June 19 statements and other minor updates from DC.]I spent the last two days doing a deep dive in forecasting outcomes of the US forcing Anthropic to take down Claude Fable. I did this for two reasons: (a) I want to know when I'll get Fable back for my research, and (b) the outcome will set a major precedent for US AI regulation.(For those who want background, the most up-to-date and comprehensive s...