You need to stop X companies to get a Y-month pause

Some thoughts on how many AI companies would have to pause vs how long a pause could last before their closest competitor catches up. I used ECI (Epoch Capability Index) as a measure of capabilities and the following method to estimate the lag:1) Find company X's best model (highest ECI), let's call it's ECI score x.2) Build OpenAI's frontier curve: sort OpenAI models by release date, keep only the running maximum of ECI.3) Find when that curve first reached x. Since the frontier jumps in discre...