AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say by Benjamin Wilson 🔸

This post is a syn­the­sis of 11 Me­tac­u­lus analy­ses run be­tween Oct 2024 and May 2026, seek­ing to sum­ma­rize ev­ery­thing we know about AI fore­cast­ing and how to do it well. Con­clu­sions from other pa­pers, blogs, and bench­marks are also dis­cussed in or­der to give a com­pre­hen­sive overview of the field. Top takeawaysPros still beat bots in com­par­i­sons to date: Me­tac­u­lus has com­pared bots and Pros (top fore­cast­ers on Me­tac­u­lus) on a shared set of for­ward-look­ing ques­...