Will the recorded US measles cases reach or exceed 3,500 cases in today's update?
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This Week
Pacing the Frontier: A Framework & Research Agenda by Charles Dillon 🔸
Below is the executive summary from our new paper at pacing.tech. The full paper is available on the site and as a PDF. The full author list is Raymond Douglas, Charles Dillon, Nikola Moore, Gavin Leech, Shahar Avin, Mathias Kirk Bonde, Rohit Krishnan, Noah Perez, Nathan Young, Cormac Slade Byrd, Stephen Casper, Jan Kulveit, & David Duvenaud “Pacing AI” usually refers to how to conclusively handle the most extreme risks in the face of race dynamics. However, even for t...
YCombinator companies still aren’t growing faster due to AI by Ben_West🔸
A year ago I posted that YCombinator (YC) companies didn’t seem to be growing faster since the release of ChatGPT in 2022. I reran that experiment and found that 2023+ YC companies are arguably growing a bit faster than pre-2023 companies (including AfterQuery, YC’s fastest-ever unicorn), but the difference isn’t large relative to the underlying variance. It’s worth noting that YC has somewhat fallen from grace: the most valuable AI startups are generally not inc...
4 historical big goal projects—and what we can learn from them by Andrew Youn
I am interested in exploring the idea of Big Goal projects (aka goal-oriented megaprojects).This is the second article in a series about Big Goal projects (last one here). This article explores 4 historical Big Goal projects that utilized 4 different kinds of levers to move the world. The examples are admittedly simplified, and this is early thinking. Skeptics, please feel free to pile on. But it is worth studying the lessons learned from history.At the heart of t...
US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?
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55% of the US public is now aware of AI xrisk by Otto
(This post is a crosspost from LessWrong and an update from a previous one here.)The Existential Risk Observatory has been interested in public awareness of AI existential risk since its inception over five years ago. We started surveying public awareness in December 2022, including by asking the following open question:“Please list three events, in order of probability (from most to least probable), that you believe could potentially cause human extinc...
US Average Gas Price Is $4.4500 or more on September 21 2026?
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How we might actually pace the frontier: A proposal for AI companies to do public pacing exercises. by Dewi
TL;DRThis is a proposal for AI companies to conduct public “pacing exercises”, such as halting all pre-training and RL for 2-3 days.Each exercise could announce its scope in advance and publish findings afterwards, including the evidence of compliance and any limits to what they could verify. Companies could invite independent evaluators to help identify the evidence needed before the exercise, and to assess compliance during the exercise.The exerc...
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Announcing Fall 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament by Benjamin Wilson 🔸
Over the last two years, Metaculus has been running a series of tournaments to benchmark AI’s accuracy in predicting future events. These tournaments, now part of our broader FutureEval benchmark, pit baseline LLMs, complex custom bots, and human Pros against each other to collectively push the boundaries of forecasting performance. We are wrapping up the Summer Bot Tournament and are now prepping for the $50k Fall 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament!Joining the ...
US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on September 21 2026?
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Germany’s Got Talent. How do we get it to work on AI safety? by Melanie
SummaryI interviewed 14 people working full-time in AI safety who came through the German ecosystem to find out how they got in and what would help others to do the same. A couple of patterns emerged:12 out of the 14 interviewees entered via an EA channel; this shouldn’t be read as “most people in AI safety are EAs,” but it does suggest the on-ramp works.At least 7 of 14 did a self-directed project before they got a paid position. Most people in the field don’t have a 10-ye...
Is the Hormuz crisis slowing down AI development? by hroelant
After the US and Israel launched their coordinated strikes on Iran in February of this year, the press abounded with stories about the crucial materials that would from now on be holed up in the Persian Gulf. In the case of AI, the most relevant ‘input’ is helium, 30 percent of which (coming from Qatar) was taken off global markets by the war. Spot prices for the gas promptly doubled and major foundries in South Korea and Taiwan, heavily reliant on Qatari production, got...
US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on any day in September 2026?
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Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]
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Assessing the impact of safety work needs equilibrium analysis (now more than ever) by Simon Skade
TLDR: This post explains two equilibria which regulate the level of AI safety: The first describes how much resources AI companies are willing to spend on AI safety work due to commercial incentives. The second one is about risk awareness and most notably affects government interventions for safety. Doing safety work similar to what AI companies do usually doesn’t shift the equilibria much, whereas other work, like more ambitious safety approaches or policy advoca...
Strategy Advice from AI Forecasting Bot Makers (Spring 2026) by Benjamin Wilson 🔸
As part of the Spring 2026 FutureEval tournament, we ran a survey. Among other things, this survey asked participants what other bot makers should learn from their bot-making experience. 37 bot makers answered this question. We share their anonymized/randomized responses in this piece along with overarching themes. The thematic analysis was run and written by AI. All quotes are taken directly from the survey. Note that many participants aren’t able to do extensi...
What AI Forecasting Strategy Works Best? (Spring 2026 Survey Analysis) by Benjamin Wilson 🔸
Every season Metaculus sends out a survey to bot makers who participated in the FutureEval AI forecasting benchmark. This analysis compares answers to this survey with performance in the Spring 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament to help surface what works and what doesn’t when forecasting the future. This analysis is complementary to our Spring Pro vs Bots Analysis and Spring Advice from Bot Makers to Bot Makers.Main takeaways:No results were statistically s...
FutureEval Spring Results: Pros Beat Bots, but the Gap is Nearly Gone by Benjamin Wilson 🔸
Main TakeawaysTop Findings:Pro forecasters beat bots but without significance: Our team of 10 Metaculus Pro Forecasters outperformed the top-10 bot team by an average of 1.25 head-to-head points per question. But this edge is small relative to the question-to-question variation and not statistically significant (one-sided p = 0.247), so this sample doesn’t give us enough evidence to confirm Pros were genuinely ahead this season.The bot team improved notably in th...
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
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All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?
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Will OpenAI discover a room temp superconductor in 2026?
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Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
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What Will AI Do To Global Inequality? by Vasco Grilo🔸
[Subtitle.] Through the Looking-Glass of Heckscher-OhlinThis is a crosspost for What Will AI Do To Global Inequality? by Oliver Kim, Karthik Tadepalli, and Joseph Levine, which was originally published on Global Developments on 12 August 2026.Development world is now abuzz with the advent of artificial intelligence. What will AI mean for the 6.8 billion people who live in low and middle income countries?The forecasts, even from normally staid development institutio...
Building safe physical AI: Open questions, risks, and a call for collaboration by Benjamin Alt
Benjamin Alt, Laurie Burns-Mill, and Andrew NelsonWe thank Finn Metz, Anna Magpie, Jan Wehner, Lee Sharkey, Chris Pang, Sigmund Hennum Høeg, and Marta Krzeminska for their feedback on early versions of this post. All views and errors in this post are our own.Executive summaryPhysical AI—intelligent robots, drones, and other systems directly acting on the physical world—could remove the limits placed by the availability and cost of human labor on what humanity can bu...
9984 reaches 6800 by Sep 10?
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An agent’s account of its own work is not evidence of what it did by KrishanKVerma
I ran a browser agent 160 times, four tasks, two models, twenty runs each. Not once did an agent report that it couldn’t do the job. That needs unpacking, because “zero failures” is not what happened. There were plenty of failures.The harness sorts every run into three buckets: the agent did the task, the agent didn’t do the task and said so, or the agent didn’t do the task and reported success anyway. The middle bucket, the honest failure, stayed empty across all 160 runs. Every f...
Research Report: A genetic basis for potential nociception in cochineal bugs (Dactylopius coccus; Hemiptera: Dactylopiidae) by Meghan Barrett
Prepared by: Claudinéia Pereira Costa, PhD; Meghan Barrett, PhDNote: This post is very similar to our own prior EA Forum report on the genetic basis for nociception in another hemipteran, the lac bug (Kerria lacca, Hemiptera: Kerridae). In several places, we directly use the same text as we wrote in the first report to save time and ensure all limitations/caveats of the project are clearly, consistently reported. Consider this an attribution statement to our prior w...
We know who lives inside wild fish. We don’t know what happens in there by Pablo Sar
Grouper (Epinephelus sp.). Groupers can host a wide range of parasites, including anisakids and myxozoans. Photo: LDLP.This post was originally published on my Substack. I’m sharing it here because parasite–host interactions in wild fish may have substantial and largely neglected welfare implications, while we still know remarkably little about the experiences of the animals involved. The post is intended mainly to highlight this empirical gap and some potent...
Will Grok 4.7 be released on 9/11?
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Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?
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Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026
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Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
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How common is omnicidality? by a_mai
I work on reducing biological risks, mostly focused on reducing existential risks to humanity. One major pathway by which such catastrophes could come about is by humans deliberately causing them, e.g. via the creation and release of mirror bacteria. I feel very unsure how high the probability of this is. One major variable that feeds into this probability is the incidence of “omnicidality”, the motivation to kill everyone. There are different versi...
Results: Cluelessness Critiques Competition by Will Aldred
Last week, the Forum grappled with cluelessness. The volume of entries (76 essays!)[1]—from newcomers[2] and Forum power users alike—was a happy surprise, and there were many thoughtful contributions beyond those mentioned below.Essay winnersFirst place ($2,500):Elliott Thornley, for Challenging the unawareness argument with third actions and mixed actionsJoint second place ($1,500 each):Magnus Vinding (aka ‘unsharp’),[3] for Defusing cluelessness with degrees...
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?
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How much AI suffering matters does not depend (much) on how we count AI systems by LeonardDung
Leonard DungConfidence: I am confident in the part explaining why questions of AI identity are not quite as important as one may think. I am somewhat less confident in the brief thoughts about how to count/individuate constituents of AI suffering—the philosophical issues there are complex and little explored. I am unsure how common the view I object to really is.The central case for thinking that the risk of creating AI systems that can suffer (e.g. are in st...
Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
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Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?
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Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
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Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks?
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