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Yesterday

AGI Multi-Agent Alignment Simulation by DavidGhiberdic

DavidGhiberdic·Nuno Sempere·5h ago

Co-au­thor: @Zoe L Dis­clo­sure: An LLM was used to help draft this post, but we have ed­ited/​rewrit­ten it ex­ten­sively and en­dorse it.This pro­ject is part of the Sen­tient Fu­tures Pro­ject In­cu­ba­tor.Multi-Agent Align­ment Si­mu­la­tion: A Multi-Agent Geopoli­ti­cal War Game for the AI RaceOverviewThis pro­ject is a multi-agent simu­la­tion of the AGI de­vel­op­ment race, set in the near fu­ture. Four fron­tier AI com­pa­nies (An­thropic, OpenAI, Google Deep­Mind, and Deep­Seek) com­pet...

Antiviral strategy for biosecurity—repurposing, broad spectrum antivirals, and combinations by Dan Elton

Dan Elton·Nuno Sempere·3h ago

Note: this is the 2nd ar­ti­cle in a se­ries of ar­ti­cles dis­cussing rad­vac.org re­lated biose­cu­rity ini­ti­a­tives. In my last ar­ti­cle I dis­cussed us­ing yeast to cre­ate “vac­cine fac­to­ries in a tube”. This post was also cross-posted on my Sub­stack. Speed mat­ters dur­ing a pan­demic. Maxwell Tabar­rok has es­ti­mated that if the FDA’s emer­gency use au­tho­riza­tion of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vac­cine had been done four months ear­lier, then about 240,000 lives would have been saved.[1]A...

This Week

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

Mikhail Tal·Manifold Markets·4d ago

45% — undefined traders, $1790 volume

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Mikhail Tal·Manifold Markets·4d ago

68% — undefined traders, $6273 volume

Why diversify your donation portfolio? by Johannes Riemenschneider

Johannes Riemenschneider·Nuno Sempere·4d ago

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What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 14th UTC?

Anonymous🫘·Manifold Markets·5d ago

A draft honesty policy for credible communication with AI systems by Forethought

Forethought·Nuno Sempere·2d ago

This is a rough re­search note – we’re shar­ing it for feed­back and to spark dis­cus­sion. We’re less con­fi­dent in its meth­ods and con­clu­sions.ContextWe think that it would be very good if hu­man in­sti­tu­tions could cred­ibly com­mu­ni­cate with ad­vanced AI sys­tems. This could en­able pos­i­tive-sum trade be­tween hu­mans and AIs in­stead of con­flict that leaves ev­ery­one worse-off.[1] We want mod­els to be able to trust com­pa­nies when they make an hon­est offer or share in­for­ma­...

Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?

Limerick Ostrich·Manifold Markets·1d ago

32% — undefined traders, $963 volume

How many weeks will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?

archvenison·Manifold Markets·2d ago

Older

FutureEval Forecasting Bot-Maker Survey: What Winners Did Differently by grace_mclain

grace_mclain·Nuno Sempere·6d ago

Me­tac­u­lus has wrapped up the Fall 2025 Fu­tureE­val Bot Tour­na­ment. This tour­na­ment (formerly known as AI Bench­mark­ing) is part of the Fu­tureE­val pro­ject, mea­sur­ing the abil­ity of AI agents to pre­dict fu­ture out­comes in Science, Tech­nol­ogy, Health, Geopoli­tics, AI it­self, and more. Beyond tour­na­ments on Me­tac­u­lus, fore­cast­ing is a key skill in many real-world tasks, en­abling plan­ning, risk as­sess­ment, and de­ci­sion-mak­ing.As we’ve done af­ter pre­vi­ous rounds,...

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?

Shane Bo·Manifold Markets·7d ago

55% — undefined traders, $8237 volume

Announcing Metaculus Summer 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament by postreal

postreal·Nuno Sempere·7d ago

Sum­mer Bot Tour­na­ment is StartingOver the last two years, Me­tac­u­lus has been run­ning a se­ries of tour­na­ments to bench­mark AI’s ac­cu­racy in pre­dict­ing fu­ture events. Th­ese tour­na­ments, now part of our broader Fu­tureE­val bench­mark, pit fron­tier mod­els, bot de­vel­op­ers, and a hu­man baseline against each other to col­lec­tively push the bound­aries of fore­cast­ing perfor­mance. We are wrap­ping up the Spring Bot Tour­na­ment and are now prep­ping for the $50k Sum­mer Bot ...

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket]

Sad·Manifold Markets·7d ago

53% — undefined traders, $15490 volume

Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?

Andri 🔸·Manifold Markets·7d ago

22% — undefined traders, $2087 volume

Will US average gas price reach … in May 2026?

Jack·Manifold Markets·7d ago

Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?

Jack·Manifold Markets·7d ago

99% — undefined traders, $25195 volume

May 2026 AI model releases

prismatic·Manifold Markets·8d ago

Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?

Sad·Manifold Markets·8d ago

60% — undefined traders, $9787 volume

On May 4th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?

dfish·Manifold Markets·12d ago

Will GPT-image-2 's LMArena score drop meaningfully, 1 month after release?

Bayesian·Manifold Markets·17d ago

98% — undefined traders, $4721 volume

Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in April 2026, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?

Alex·Manifold Markets·25d ago

20% — undefined traders, $6721 volume

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Mikhail Tal·Manifold Markets·1mo ago

57% — undefined traders, $1785 volume

Trump visits China by May 15?

PREDYX·Manifold Markets·1mo ago

88% — undefined traders, $73104 volume

Science Bowl Nationals 2026 Prop Bets

alphazom·Manifold Markets·2mo ago

How many weeks will the US–Iran war last?

Gaz Downright·Manifold Markets·2mo ago

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Techiavellian·Manifold Markets·2mo ago

61% — undefined traders, $2086 volume

Who will win High School Science Bowl Nationals 2026?

alphazom·Manifold Markets·2mo ago

When will Starship flight 13 happen?

Oleg Eterevsky·Manifold Markets·6mo ago

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

MP·Manifold Markets·39mo ago

43% — undefined traders, $1928419 volume

When will Starship flight 12 happen?

Oleg Eterevsky·Manifold Markets·7mo ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]

Sad·Manifold Markets·28d ago

24% — undefined traders, $56233 volume

Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 8th, 2026?

arnav·Manifold Markets·6d ago

2% — undefined traders, $4928 volume

Global Average Temperature April 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)

Christopher Randles·Manifold Markets·1mo ago

Anthropic highest valuation by end of June 2026

Bayesian·Manifold Markets·16d ago

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Conflux 🔗·Manifold Markets·10d ago

50% — undefined traders, $14363 volume

Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?

Alex·Manifold Markets·3mo ago

92% — undefined traders, $9971 volume

Will I earn at least $25 per hour grading USA(J)MO?

Dotted Orz·Manifold Markets·1mo ago

98% — undefined traders, $17679 volume

Largest company end of May 2026?

Bayesian·Manifold Markets·4mo ago