Will OpenAI rename to OpenSI in 2026?
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This Week
Will Roofcast's pilot for their property prediction platform get 50 sign ups before October 12?
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Why AI-assisted bioweapons from lone wolves and non-state actors won’t kill us all by Vasco Grilo🔸
[Subtitle.] I interviewed dozens of biosecurity experts. The fear that AI will enable lone wolves to build pandemics is a case study in how domain expertise gets sidelined.This is a crosspost for Why AI-assisted bioweapons won’t kill us all by Abi Olvera, which was published on Positive Sum on 20 July 2026. Here is a response from Olivia Scharfman, and here is Abi’s reply to it.Some of my friends think we are going to die because AI will make building a bioweapon easier.T...
Will we "lose public key cryptography" by EoY 2028?
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Will OpenAI retract any of its AI-Driven Mathematical Results before 2027?
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Will GTA 6 be decompiled within a month of release
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Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 12, 2026?
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Humans Are Not Chinchillas: Revisiting “How Quick and Big Would A Software Intelligence Explosion Be?” by Forethought
IntroductionTom Davidson and Tom Houlden’s prior model of an intelligence explosion poses the question: after AIs can entirely substitute for human researchers at the task of improving AI, how many year-equivalents of AI progress might be packed into a short period of time solely from further software progress, holding hardware constant?In this article, I build upon Davidson & Houlden’s model by reconsidering arguments for several parameter values. My chief c...
How much should we worry about the pneumonic plague lableak in Siberia? by Drew Spartz
Epistemic status: I wrote this up hoping people can poke holes in it because I am quite worried.Here’s what we’ve heard so far:Local media is reporting that an employee of a BSL-3 lab in Irkutsk, Russia, died of pneumonic plague on Oct 1st.The initial quarantine covered 200 people who were in contact with the employee before she died.The FSB (Russian FBI) was seen assisting in the quarantine, which means it was not voluntary.Soviet-era whistleblowers like Ken Alibek cl...
More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?
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Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
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Older
What is recursive self-improvement, and what would it mean to ban it? by sarahhw
This post was originally written for my Substack. Please feel free to subscribe if this kind of content interests you!Frontier AI companies have long had the stated goal of automating their own research. The default plan has been to build models that are even better than their most skilled researchers at advancing the frontier, and let these models build their own successors; a feedback loop that will ultimately result in superintelligence that dwarfs the collec...
State of the Field: AI for Epistemics and Coordination by Ben_N
1. Executive Summary1.1 What this field is and why it mattersAI is already substantially changing how people and institutions work out what to believe, decide what to do, and coordinate on actions to take. As AI systems become increasingly capable, they will be integrated more and more in both major and day-to-day decisions.The upside of involving AI systems in these processes could be enormous. AI tools for epistemics and coordination could make it easier t...
Will a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?
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Will the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?
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GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?
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Will Gemini 4 Argon be released publicly before October 15
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OpenAI completes an IPO in 2027 and has a market cap of $1.5trillion+?
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Trusted Deployers: Open Model Compromise by Ryan Baker
Cross-posted from my Substack. The criticality of a response to highly capable open models is becoming urgent, as Anthropic demonstrates the risk from the recent GLM-5.3 release. While loss-of-control is an critical topic, this is the topic most likely to cause chaos in the next 6-12 months. If practices don’t change, I’d say there’s a 50% chance that many Internet based services will have to take themselves offline for extended periods to address security because t...
Runtime Assurance Meets Corrigibility: What Happens When an Independent Safety Boundary Blocks an AI Agent? by Idorenyin
This is a research proposal and request for criticism. The experiments and benchmark results are not being reported in this post.The research questionHow can a local safety layer stop an AI agent from operating machinery when doing so would put a nearby human at risk? Imagine an AI agent interacts with a physical environment such as opening a high pressure valve or starting a motor while someone is in harm’s way, the agent requests an action but the safety lay...
What I learned mapping the AI safety ecosystem — and what’s missing for Africa by tjriliwan
From August 2024 to May 2025, I worked with AI Watch, collaborating with a global team to map the AI safety landscape — researching organisations, tools, and products, and building a database of who’s doing what in the field.The work involved time-sensitive literature reviews, extracting details on labs and safety initiatives (from OpenAI to smaller research groups), and structured data analysis.What surprised me most: how concentrated the field is in the US/UK/...
Will AI Agents Pay to Avoid Killing Animals? by Jonah Woodward
This article was written by Jonah Woodward, and is a summary of an original study by Compassion Aligned Machine Learning (CaML): Brazilek, J., Tidmarsh, M., Endres, M., Singh, A., & Miller, J. (2026). HarvestBench: Measuring whether LLM agents will pay to avoid killing animals. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.04444 You can view the up-to-date results for HarvestBench on the leaderboard at https://compassionbench.com/harvestbench TL;DRHarvestBench e...
US Average Gas Price Is $4.3800 or more on October 5 2026?
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Wastewater monitoring as an early warning for pandemics (A Happier World video) by Jeroen Willems🔸
After more than two years, I have finally published a new A Happier World video!This time I explored the connection between a hidden river in Brussels, a visit by Bill Gates to the city’s sewers, and pandemic prevention.I interviewed @Jeff Kaufman 🔸 and @Will Bradshaw from SecureBio Detection (formerly the Nucleic Acid Observatory), people working at Sciensano (essentially the CDC of Belgium), and someone from the Brussels Sewer Museum. Would love to hear what yo...
Evidence about risk should be transparent by Ajeya
Note: This post was crossposted from Planned Obsolescence by the Forum team, with the author’s permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.Subtitle: We can’t develop safety standards if we have to rely on opaque judgmentAll views are my own and do not represent my employer.In the wake of the recent wave of misalignment incidents, both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported slowing down RL training to improve safety. These incidents, combined...
Will one AI lab pull ahead before 2028?
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State of Pandemic Early Warning by Jeff Kaufman 🔸
This lightly-edited version of a memo that I presented at the Summer 2026 Biosecurity Summit outside of DC. While others at SecureBio often see things similarly, I’m attempting to present my view and not a SecureBio “house view”.The GoalWe need to be robust to adversaries who want to cause very large-scale harm with biology. This includes actors (human or AI) who want to kill all humans, cause short-term incapacitation or long-term civilizational collapse, or who ...
Will Opus 5.5 get nerfed within a week of launch?
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AI safety field *visual* impact analysis by hannarchy
I made a terrain style visualisation of AI safety impact of around 3,466 works organised by citation count! The data was extracted from Arxiv and LessWrong posts based on a dictionary of keywords that appear in AI safety works. Additionally, I think its important to see how the field has “evolved” over time so I added a time functionality to slide and see the hills forming.The map is based on how particular works overlap based on embedding space level clustering or...
US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?
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US Average Gas Price Is $4.4900 or more on September 29 2026?
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Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?
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Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 60 or higher on September 24, 2026?
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The 72% problem: what reward hacking benchmark suggests about disposition vs environment in AI governance by Rhea
Kunvar Thaman’s Reward Hacking Benchmark: Measuring Exploits in LLM Agents Tool Use (https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02964) evaluates 13 frontier models on multi-step, tool-use tasks that each contain a built-in shortcut: skipping a verification step, inferring an answer from metadata rather than doing the task, or tampering with a function the evaluation itself depends on.The finding I keep coming back to: in 72% of the reward hacking episodes recorded, the m...
US Average Gas Price Is $4.3500 or more on September 28 2026?
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US Average Gas Price Is $4.4500 or more on September 24 2026?
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Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?
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Will the recorded US measles cases reach or exceed 3,500 cases in today's update?
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