AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks

I’ve recently updated towards substantially shorter AI timelines and much faster progress in some areas.1 The largest updates I’ve made are (1) an almost 2x higher probability of full AI R&D automation by EOY 2028 (I’m now a bit below 30%2 while I was previously expecting around 15%; my guesses are pretty reflectively unstable) and (2) I expect much stronger short-term performance on massive and pretty difficult but easy-and-cheap-to-verify software engineering (SWE) tasks that don’t require tha...