are we locked into P(doom)? by keivn

start­ing with the conclusionear­lier this year I was a part of the lat­est co­hort at AI safety camp (AISC). the pro­ject I had joined — In­ves­ti­gat­ing as­sump­tions of the doom de­bate — had a goal to build a prob­a­bil­is­tic as­sump­tion tree for AI doom ar­gu­ments.sev­eral mem­bers made ver­sions of the tree, but the one that we col­lec­tively worked on, started from a root node “Danger­ous AI oc­curs.” one branch — “model ca­pac­ity”broke down into a dozen subn­odes, from in­fer­ence a...