How much should we worry about the pneumonic plague lableak in Siberia? by Drew Spartz

·Nuno Sempere··

Epistemic sta­tus: I wrote this up hop­ing peo­ple can poke holes in it be­cause I am quite wor­ried.Here’s what we’ve heard so far:Lo­cal me­dia is re­port­ing that an em­ployee of a BSL-3 lab in Irkutsk, Rus­sia, died of pneu­monic plague on Oct 1st.The ini­tial quaran­tine cov­ered 200 peo­ple who were in con­tact with the em­ployee be­fore she died.The FSB (Rus­sian FBI) was seen as­sist­ing in the quaran­tine, which means it was not vol­un­tary.Soviet-era whistle­blow­ers like Ken Alibek cl...

Read full article →

Related Articles

Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Anthem · Manifold Markets · 1d ago
How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
Fastcar99 · Manifold Markets · 2d ago
What is recursive self-improvement, and what would it mean to ban it? by sarahhw
sarahhw · Nuno Sempere · 2d ago
State of the Field: AI for Epistemics and Coordination by Ben_N
Ben_N · Nuno Sempere · 2d ago
Will a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?
Bayesian · Manifold Markets · 2d ago