Home/ForecastingIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?Scott Alexander·Manifold Markets·Forecasting·February 20, 202348% — undefined traders, $14178127 volumeRead full article →Related ArticlesWhat is recursive self-improvement, and what would it mean to ban it? by sarahhwsarahhw · Nuno Sempere · 20h agoState of the Field: AI for Epistemics and Coordination by Ben_NBen_N · Nuno Sempere · 21h agoWill a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?Bayesian · Manifold Markets · 23h agoWill the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?Laurent27bis · Manifold Markets · 1d agoHow many people will attend EAG NYC 2026?d · Manifold Markets · 1d ago