Is a pause enforceable? New paper out! by Otto

Some say, a pause is pos­si­ble, it merely de­pends on poli­ti­cal will. Others say, tech progress can never be stopped. Maybe the truth lies in the mid­dle? Maybe we can ‘catch all GPUs’ (that is, effec­tively en­force a pause or other in­ter­na­tional agree­ment) as long as train­ing run sizes are large enough? Maybe ev­ery gov­ern­ment policy would there­fore have a break­down point, a num­ber of FLOPs or H100-equiv­a­lents where the train­ing run gets too small to en­force reg­u­la­tion?In o...