Research update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators

Last week, ARC released a paper called Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators, which follows up on previous work on formalizing the presumption of independence. Most of the work described here was done in 2023. A brief table of contents for this post: What is a heuristic estimator? (One example and three analogies.) How might heuristic estimators help with understanding neural networks? (Three potential applications.) Formalizing the principle of unpredictable errors for...