The Copier Line: What ForecastBench’s Market Scores Actually Measure. by Dominus

Figures as of 11 Au­gust 2026. The leader­board up­dates nightly. The method for re­com­put­ing ev­ery num­ber here on any date is given in full, and the code is linked: [link]OpeningFore­castBench had tested 527 fore­cast­ers as of 11 Au­gust 2026. Of the ones with enough re­solved mar­ket ques­tions to test, 442 scored worse than the price they were handed. None beat it, once you ac­count for hav­ing run 527 tests at once.Two come close. They are the two the ar­gu­ment was already about: Cassi...