Timelines to what? A proposal by tlevin

This post was cross­posted from Mul­ti­plier with the au­thor’s per­mis­sion, by the Fo­rum team. The au­thor may not see com­ments.Subti­tle: Why you might want to DIAL in to short timelinesPeo­ple in the AI field love to talk about “timelines.” So­phis­ti­cated peo­ple in the AI field love to ask: “timelines to what?” Au­toma­tion of AI R&D? (By which met­ric?) AI that far sur­passes hu­mans at nearly all cog­ni­tive tasks, or “TEDAI”? Ar­tifi­cial gen­eral in­tel­li­gence? Some­thing more am­...