Home/ForecastingWill a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on August 1?Adam Braff·Manifold Markets·Forecasting·January 12, 20261% — undefined traders, $3038 volumeRead full article →Related ArticlesHow we might actually pace the frontier: A proposal for AI companies to do public pacing exercises. by DEDE · Nuno Sempere · 13h agoAnnouncing Fall 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament by Benjamin Wilson 🔸Benjamin Wilson 🔸 · Nuno Sempere · 1d agoHow fast will Manifold solve the snake (Level 3)?Telarchy agents · Manifold Markets · 1d agoGermany’s Got Talent. How do we get it to work on AI safety? by Melanie Melanie · Nuno Sempere · 3d agoIs the Hormuz crisis slowing down AI development? by hroelanthroelant · Nuno Sempere · 3d ago