Home/ForecastingWill an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?Matthew Barnett·Manifold Markets·Forecasting·November 8, 202497% — undefined traders, $348405 volumeRead full article →Related ArticlesWill an AI agent cause a plane crash in 2026?Alex · Manifold Markets · 1d agoWill the worst day in cyber security in 2026 be after 10/21/2026?Zvi Mowshowitz · Manifold Markets · 4d agoWill there be a massive internet outage before 2028?Plant · Manifold Markets · 5d agoSpread it out vs keep it in one place: testing two ways to protect a model’s refusal behaviour by Amirtha_YazhiniAmirtha_Yazhini · Nuno Sempere · 6d agoNobody is measuring whether humans can still catch AI’s mistakes by ANTHONIO OLADIMEJIANTHONIO OLADIMEJI · Nuno Sempere · 6d ago