Home/ForecastingWill the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?Laurent27bis·Manifold Markets·Forecasting·October 2, 20263% — undefined traders, $9549 volumeRead full article →Related ArticlesWhat is recursive self-improvement, and what would it mean to ban it? by sarahhwsarahhw · Nuno Sempere · 2h agoState of the Field: AI for Epistemics and Coordination by Ben_NBen_N · Nuno Sempere · 2h agoWill a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?Bayesian · Manifold Markets · 4h agoHow many people will attend EAG NYC 2026?d · Manifold Markets · 22h agoGPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?Bayesian · Manifold Markets · 23h ago