How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

·Dan Luu··

I was curious how well the predictions of the most widely cited AI skeptic I've seen (Ed Zitron) have done, so I looked at how his predictions panned out. To disclose my own biases, I've never had a particularly strong pro or anti AI progress position. For example, in 2022, I did a comprehensive look at predictions Futurists made, including well-respected folks like Kurzweil and found them to be generally wrong on both the prediction results as well as the reasoning. On the flip side, in 2015, I...

Read full article →

Related Articles

Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?
Bayesian · Manifold Markets · 18h ago
Claude Fable 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Bayesian · Manifold Markets · 1d ago
September 2026 AI model releases
prismatic · Manifold Markets · 2d ago
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Ben · Manifold Markets · 2d ago
Results: Cluelessness Critiques Competition by Will Aldred
Will Aldred · Nuno Sempere · 3d ago